“Covid will not magically turn into a malaria-like endemic infection where levels stay constant for long periods,” Raina MacIntyre, a professor of global biosecurity at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, was quoted as saying by CNBC. 

She explained this by pointing out that the number of infections of an endemic disease does not change rapidly and do so typically over the course of a few years. However, in the case of coronavirus, the infections rise rapidly over periods of days to weeks.

Also taking the instance of the R-value, MacIntyre stated that if the number is greater than 1, growth is exponential, meaning the virus is becoming more prevalent and the conditions for an epidemic are present. 

In such cases, recurrent epidemic waves for respiratory transmitted epidemic infections are also often observed, as was seen with smallpox, measles and influenza, she said. 

In view of this, the expert said: “It (Covid) will keep causing epidemic waves, driven by waning vaccine immunity, new variants that escape vaccine protection, unvaccinated pockets, births and migration.”

“This is why we need an ongoing ‘vaccine-plus’ and ventilation strategy, to keep R below 1 so we can live with the virus without major disruptions to society,” said MacIntyre, warning that more variants will arise. 

India’s R-value had reduced to 1.57 in the week from 14-21 January.

Global Covid cases 

On the other hand, the World Health Organisation chief said on Tuesday that 90 million cases of coronavirus have been reported since the Omicron variant was first identified 10 weeks ago — amounting to more than in all of 2020, the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic.

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanon Ghebreyeus cautioned that Omicron should not be underestimated even though it has shown to bring less severe illness than earlier variants — and cited “a very worrying increase in deaths in most regions of the world”.

“We are concerned that a narrative has taken hold in some countries that because of vaccines — and because of Omicron’s high transmissibility and lower severity — preventing transmission is no longer possible and no longer necessary,” said Tedros. 

“Nothing could be further from the truth,” he said, adding: “It’s premature for any country either to surrender or to declare victory. This virus is dangerous and it continues to evolve before our very eyes.”

This comes as new studies are emerging that suggest the latest version of the highly-infectious Omicron variant is transmitting even faster than the original, and mild cases of the first may not offer much protection against future infections.

The findings cast doubt on hopes that the wave of Omicron that’s sweeping the world may help hasten the end of the pandemic.

Even if endemic stage is reached…

In addition to this, experts have also pointed out that even if the Covid-19 pandemic reaches the endemic stage, it does not mean we drop our guard, surrender to the virus or downgrade the threat the virus poses to individuals and the community.

According to Hassan Vally, an associate professor at the Deakin University, and Catherine Bennett, the chair in epidemiology at the Deakin University, we will have to continue to remain vigilant and respond to surges in cases when they occur, doing what is needed to keep transmission as low as possible.

“Importantly, a disease being considered endemic doesn’t mean we consider it mild. It just means it remains a part of our lives, and therefore we still protect the vulnerable from severe illness, as we do with other diseases,” they wrote. 

“It’s crucial we understand living with the virus isn’t the same thing as ignoring the virus. Instead, it represents an adjustment in the way in which we respond to the disease,” they added.