The Quad foreign ministers’ meeting in Melbourne on Friday had interesting timing. China has been bruised by diplomatic boycotts of its Beijing Winter Olympics and tensions between the United States and Russia on Ukraine are peaking, to say the least, in a telling show of US President Joe Biden’s priorities in foreign policy.
Fears of the Quad losing its focus on China have been running rife since Donald Trump stepped out of the White House. And indeed, the Quad is not the same without Mike Pompeo, former US secretary of state and an articulate China-hawk. These concerns worried all other Quad partners in their own way. For Japan, Australia and India, China remains the biggest threat and yet a dilution of the Quad’s core Indo-Pacific agenda has been underway. In such a challenging situation, India’s diplomatic heft has proved its mettle.
The Quad joint statement came with an unequivocal slap on the wrist for China. It held up the importance of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), mentioned challenges to the maritime rules-based order in both the South and East China Seas— waters threatened by China, and vowed to protect regional partners and their ability to develop offshore resources in their waters as per international law, and resist illegal, unregulated fishing— something China’s fishing militias would not like to hear. There was a categorical condemnation of North Korea and its reckless ballistic missile launches as well.
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But the path to consensus among the four players was rockier on the Russia-Ukraine issue and Myanmar. India, however, steered clear of saying anything on Ukraine or Russia, even as Australia and Japan made varying statements on the matter in solidarity with the United States. A statement from India’s Minister of External Affairs Dr S Jaishankar on “Russia’s actions in Ukraine” could not be extracted as he declined to answer in no uncertain terms, saying, “This meeting is focused on the Indo-Pacific, so I’m sure you understand geography. And where we stand, our position on Ukraine, we have laid it out in public at the U.N. Security Council.”
Obviously, India does not wish to tread down the path of taking sides between the United States and Russia, being the only Quad member with relatively mature ties with Russia. On January 31st, India abstained from a US-backed UNSC vote on the Ukraine-Russia issue and was appreciated by Moscow for it. So, Russia and Ukraine could not make the cut in the Quad’s statement solely on account of India’s reservations, and Jaishankar’s eloquent circumvention of the matter.
On Myanmar too, India stood resolutely firm against “national sanctions”. As an immediate neighbour of the Southeast Asian nation, now crippled under the Military Junta regime, India is aware of the recoil effect of sanctions. More specifically, sanctions would only pave the way for China’s tentacles to creep into Myanmar and the lesson from Sri Lanka advises strictly against that.
But India did find more than just takers of its own concerns about Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. The joint Quad statement addressed arguably each one of India’s concerns on terrorism in relatively greater detail. It denounced the use of “terrorist proxies for cross-border terrorism”, urged for the elimination of “terrorist safe havens” and the disruption of financial channels which sustain terrorists. The statement condemned explicitly the “terror attacks in India” naming the 26/11 Mumbai and Pathankot attacks. With this, India has seemingly managed to underscore Pakistan as the second biggest threat, after China, when it comes to the Quad’s focus. A significant victory.
Moving forward, hours after the meeting, the United States did find time from its busy Ukraine-focused schedule, to launch its Indo-Pacific strategy where it highlights India as the Indo-Pacific’s key element and vows to support a “leading India” and its “continued rise and regional leadership.” All in all, India’s position in the Quad remains strong, and consequently, the Quad too shall go the distance and register more material successes on the way.
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