The Russian invasion of Ukraine has entered its seventh day and there are still signs of the conflict not immediately ending as the Ukrainian forces put up a fight that many might not have expected.
With odds stacked against Ukraine, which was up against a much superior military power, Russia initially thought it could win the battle without much fighting.
However, things have been different on the ground. While on one hand, Russia insists it has still not launched a full-throttle assault as it does not want civilian casualties, Ukraine claims the Russian forces have suffered losses they never expected.
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Russian Air Force not in action
After the initial bombardment of cruise missiles on February 24, Russia launched an offensive destroying some military installations, including surface-to-air missile batteries and ground-based early radar systems.
International experts have also questioned why the Russian Air Force was not pressed into action.
There hasn’t been much air activity by the Russians. Instead, the Ukrainian Air Force has been conducting defensive sorties to counter helicopter attacks.
In India, the opinion seems to be divided on whether Russia has been incapable or just giving time to Ukrainian citizens to leave.
“Russia is not mounting a full-scale assault because it is concerned about civilian casualties. It is because of this reason, their initial advance wasn’t that quick,” Maj Gen Ashok Kumar (Retd) said.
He added, the kind of superior firepower it has, it would have flustered Ukraine in a big way. “As far as Russia is concerned, their focus was not the local population being subjugated, but they wanted to change the regime to one that is pro-Russia because Ukraine joining the European Union has serious security implications for Russia.”
He said Russia was strengthening its fighting force with dedicated logistics so that it doesn’t suffer adverse casualties because that will not be taken kindly at home.
“They are giving people time to leave, the public was creating blockades. The Ukrainian forces are also buying time to respond once the ground invasion is ready,” said Major Samar Toor (Retd), a former Indian Army officer who is in touch with several students, trying to help them get out.
Russia’s air superiority is no match for Ukraine. It has around 1500 fighter aircraft, compared to 60 of Ukraine. In addition, Russia has over 500 helicopters, while Ukraine has around 35.
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Ukraine claims Russia suffered big losses
According to Ukraine, Russian forces have lost 5710 soldiers.
Putting out the numbers, Ukraine’s defence minister Oleksii Rezniko said, “Its only indicative estimates. But it illustrates well the situation of the occupier. The enemy is demoralised, he’s in agony. The occupiers are firing on civilians because Ukrainians with weapons are too strong for Russia. Ukraine will win.”
Its only indicative estimates.But it illustrates well the situation of the occupier.The enemy is demoralized,he’s in agony.The occupiers are firing on civilians because Ukrainians with weapons are too strong for .will win.The whole world with us cuz their safaty depends on us pic.twitter.com/j4GCXxTHJm
— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) March 1, 2022
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Slow advancement by Russia
Miles-long military convoys of the Russian forces have been seen on satellite imagery moving towards Kyiv but faced with resistance, their progress has been slow.
One reason for Russia’s delayed assault is two key port cities, Odesa in the west and Mariupol, that are held by Ukraine. Russian forces moved in from Crimea in the south, aiming to gain control over the two cities. From the north, the advancement to Kyiv has also been slow.
“There is a lack of capability in the Russian Armed Forces to expand the conflict to the western region at this juncture. The precision targeting and night firing have shown shortcomings. There is also a political end game that rests at Dnieper River in the North and includes the three ports in the south,” said Lt Gen Rakesh Sharma (Retd), a former Indian Army officer.
Referring to the military mobilisation shown in satellite images, he said, the 40km-convoy just looked like a traffic jam. “By now tanks should have left the line and from open terrain moved towards Kyiv. Why then, are they not doing so? It could be largely a logistics convoy and tanks are either dummies or protection for the convoy.”
“Since the Ukraine air force is degraded, these have not been targeted till now,” he said.
Fighting has intensified in Kharkiv on the eastern side, where the situation has worsened. In the wake of the situation, the Indian government has also issued a fresh advisory for Indians to leave the city immediately.
While several videos of tanks moving towards Kyiv have surfaced, armour assaults haven’t been used yet by the Russian forces in Ukraine.
Like all other military capabilities, the odds are stacked in Russia’s favour even when it comes to armour firepower. Russia has an estimated 12,000 tanks, outnumbering Ukraine’s 2,500 but it’s still not clear what types they are using in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
Other than tanks, the Russian forces also have superiority when it comes to armoured personnel vehicles, that are used to transport ground troops close to the target for an assault.
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