The concentration of Russian forces along the Ukrainian border has concerned the West, in particular the United States, which has warned of “swift, severe, and united response”. Western intelligence officials say that Russia has amassed 100,000 troops on the eastern side of the former Soviet republic.
They fear another invasion by Russia, on the lines of Crimea in 2014. Numerous rounds of talks have been held between the West and Moscow, but the Russian troops remain in the area.
Watch: Why US fears Putin could invade Ukraine
Russia has, however, said that the fears of the West are unfounded and it doesn’t plan to start a war. But the West is keenly watching what Russian President Vladimir Putin’s next move will be.
What triggered the crisis?
Ukraine shares its border with Russia and the European Union (EU) countries. It has deep cultural ties with Russia and Russian is widely spoken there.
Russia has expressed its displeasure over Ukraine’s increasing move towards the European institutions and wants it shouldn’t join the Nato. The demand has been rejected by the Western alliance, which comprises of the United States, EU countries and Nato allies.
The deposing of Ukraine’s pre-Russia president in 2014 sent the alarm bells ringing in Moscow, which moved in and annexed Ukraine’s southern peninsula Crimea. It also backed separatists who them captured large parts of Ukraine’s eastern region. More than 14,000 people have been killed in nearly eight years of fighting there.
Is the threat of war real?
The West says yes. It has held several rounds of negotiations with Russian officials, Putin has also spoken to US President Joe Biden, but the troops remain along the Ukrainian border. Officials in the US have said that Russia has offered no proof that it will not invade.
After the recent talks with his US counterparts in Geneva, Russian foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov assured that there are “no plans or intentions to attack Ukraine”.
But Putin’s recent statements about “appropriate retaliatory military-technical measures” against West’s “aggressive approach” has worried officials. At a press conference on Wednesday, marking his first year in office, Biden said he thinks Putin will “move in” on Ukraine although he suggested a full-scale invasion may not be in the Russian leader’s plans.
Moreover, there are reports that Russia has provided passports to 500,000 people in the rebel-held areas in Ukraine. This, many political observers say, is a tactic adopted by Kremlin to protect its ‘citizens’ if its demands are not met.
Then there are war games held by Russia closer to Ukraine to prepare its troops. On Tuesday, reports emerged that Russia is a sending an unspecified number of troops from the country’s far east to Belarus for major war games in February. White House press secretary Jen Psaki described the Russian forces’ move into Belarus as part of as “extremely dangerous situation.”
What is Russia demanding?
Russia has denied an intention to attack its neighbour but demanded guarantees from the West that Nato will not expand to Ukraine or other ex-Soviet nations or place its troops and weapons there. It has also asked Western countries to not adopt “aggressive” approach and abandon military activity in Eastern Europe.
What this means that Nato countries will have to pull out their combat units from Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
Washington and its Nato allies have rejected Moscow’s demands.
Moscow has also accused Nato countries of flooding Ukraine with weapons and the US of stoking tensions. In his remarks to military officials last month, Putin had said that Russia has nowhere further to retreat to. “Do they think we’ll just watch idly?”
The West’s response
In his Wednesday’s address, Biden said that the US and its European allies are united on making sure Russia would face “severe economic consequences” if Putin attacks. But the US President acknowledged it would be crucial, and potentially difficult, to keep Nato united on the response to any attack on Ukraine.
The UK said it is supplying Ukraine with short-range anti-tank missiles for self-defence in the wake of Russia’s belligerence. Fearing an attack from Russia, Sweden recently moved hundreds of troops over strategically important Gotland Island. Denmark too adopted a similar approach a few days ago, strengthening its presence in the region.
Visiting Kyiv in a show of support, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday that Russia could launch a new attack on Ukraine at “very short notice” but Washington would pursue diplomacy as long as it could.
Meanwhile, Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said it is upto Ukraine to decide when it is ready to join the alliance.