The latest IPCC report, which is the third and final part of its Sixth Assessment Report, has added further urgency to this warning. The near term is not five or 10 years from now, it is now.

Unless the global greenhouse gas emissions peaks by 2025, just three years from now, and is cut by at least 43 per cent from current levels by 2030, the 1.5 degree target cannot be achieved, it says.

That is a tough ask, considering that global emissions are still showing an increasing trend. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 are about 12 per cent higher than in 2010.

But the important thing is that it is not an impossible task. Far from it, in fact. The latest IPCC report emphasises that strengthening of climate action to keep alive the 1.5 degree target was not just possible, but, to a large extent, also feasible and affordable.

1.5 degree target will likely be breached

Global average temperatures have already risen about 1.1 degree Celsius from pre-industrial times. The 1.5 degree Celsius threshold would most likely be breached, even in the best case scenario. In fact, the likelihood of achieving the 1.5 degree target is now even lower than in 2018 when the IPCC had come out with a special report on the feasibility of keeping global rise in temperatures to within 1.5 degree Celsius.

If everything is done right, then it would be possible to bring the temperatures down a little at a later stage, possibly within 1.5 degree limit by the end of the century. But a temporary overshoot of this limit seems unavoidable now.

But as climate change experts point out, the 1.5 degree, or 2 degree, Celsius thresholds are arbitrary targets. It is not as if 1.5 degree Celsius temperature rise is safe but 1.6 degree is not.

“The impacts of rising temperatures are cascading in nature. So, higher the temperature rise, worse are the impacts. That means a 1.5 degree target is better than 1.6 degree, and that is better than 1.7 degree, and so on. The lower we are able to restrict the temperature rise to, the better it is for the world. So the idea is to make every effort to keep it as low as we possibly can,” said Navroz Dubash, a professor at Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research and one of the lead authors of the latest IPCC report.

The climate actions that are currently promised would result in a world that would be about 3.2 degree Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times, and that is not a comfortable scenario at all.

The situation already is so grim that, even after substantial reductions in emissions, human beings would have to rely on futuristic carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies to bring down the temperatures. CDR technologies, most of which are undeveloped and untested, refer to the physical removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to reduce the greenhouse gas effect which leads to warming of the planet.

But we still have some feasible options available

However, a lot of reductions in the current level of emissions can be achieved through existing technologies that are not just feasible, but also affordable, though both, the feasibility as well as affordability, vary across regions and sectors.

Importantly, the new IPCC report points out that nearly half the world’s current emissions can be cut by 2030 using only technologies that cost less than US$100 to reduce one tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent. Examples of such technologies include largescale deployment of renewables like solar or wind energy, carbon sequestration in soil, reduction in deforestation and improvement of energy efficiency. And, 25 per cent of the current emissions can be reduced using technologies that cost less than US$ 20 per tonne of CO2. Such technologies include the shift to electric vehicles, lifestyle changes like adoption of cycles instead of motorized vehicles, and largescale use of public transport.

The IPCC also notes the dramatic reduction in costs of some of these technologies in the last few years. The cost of solar energy or lithium ion batteries, for example, has come down by nearly 85 per cent, while the cost of wind power has reduced by 55 per cent since 2010. Largescale adoption of these options can result in a significant reduction in current emissions.

“There are mitigation options which are feasible to deploy at scale in the near term… Barriers to feasibility would need to be reduced or removed, and enabling conditions strengthened to deploy mitigation options at scale,” it says.

A major shift in energy sector will be required

Traditional sources of energy like oil, gas and coal would have to be almost completely abandoned over the next few decades if the climate goals have to be achieved. The IPCC report says that coal would need to be given up entirely by the year 2050, while the use of oil and gas need to be reduced by at least 60 and 70 per cent respectively.

Considering the continued dependence on these fossil fuels, not just in the developing and least developed countries, but also in the developed world, this again is a difficult task. The campaign against coal has been gaining in strength in the last few years, and the setting up of a new coal-fired power plant makes global headlines. The new IPCC report is expected to make this campaign even stronger.

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