In July 2021, Russian President Vladimir Putin penned an article published on the Kremlin’s website. It helps in understanding what Russia wants in Ukraine.
In this long piece, Putin described Russians and Ukrainians as “one nation” declaring the collapse of the Soviet Union (USSR) in December 1991 as the “disintegration of historical Russia”. Putin believes that Ukraine’s leaders are running an “anti-Russian project”.
Ukraine is the largest country in Europe if one takes out Russia, which is spread over Asia as well. Russia under Vladimir Putin has its eyes on Ukraine, having already annexed Crimea, a peninsula of Ukraine, in 2014.
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UKRAINE SITUATION
The US, the UK and the rest of the West are worried that Putin may at any moment order Russian troops to invade Ukraine. Russia also has inside support in Ukraine in the form of Russia-speaking separatists in the southern part of the country. Follow Russia Ukraine crisis LIVE updates
Reports say Russia has increased military drills near the border with Ukraine. It has amassed forces not only along Russia-Ukraine borders but also inside Belarus, the northern neighbour of Ukraine.
Satellite image dated Feb 15, 2022, shows military equipment at Lake Donuzlav in Crimea | Maxar Technologies via AP
THE BONE OF CONTENTION
At the core of the current Ukraine crisis is Russia’s disapproval of the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) in its neighbourhood. Russia feels threatened by the rapid expansion of Nato since the late 1990s in the region. Nato and the former USSR were engaged in what was called the Cold War for about 45 years in the game of geostrategic one-upmanship.
WORRY AND STRATEGY
While the West has accused Russia of launching the biggest military attack in Europe since 1945, when World War-II ended, Russia has called it unfounded predictions. The Kremlin (the Russian word for fortress) that houses Russian President Putin’s official residence has said these “predictions” are provocative.
Amid growing speculation of war, France has announced that US President Joe Biden and Russian President Putin have agreed “in principle” to its proposal to meet to defuse tension over Ukraine.
The US, however, is ready to cut ties with select Russian banks to increase economic costs on Russia if it invades Ukraine, news agency Reuters has reported.
But why risk a war and economic sanctions?
Almost through his entire political career at the helm of the Russian government, Putin has resisted expansion of Nato, in particular Ukraine’s steps towards the US-dominated Nato and European body, the European Union.
Putin’s fundamental complaint is Nato’s attempt to bring Ukraine into its fold. Russia wants a clear guarantee from the West that Ukraine will not join Nato, a military alliance of 30 countries.
Russian army tanks being loaded onto railway platforms after drills in Russia on Feb 18, 2022 | AP
RUSSIA IN UKRAINE: SEPARATISM
A former member of the USSR, Ukraine has deep social and cultural ties with Russia. But in economy and geopolitics, Ukraine is willing to drift towards a more developed West. Russia resents it and a large number of Ukrainian people who speak Russian are said to have a soft corner for the country. Putin banks a lot on this internal support base.
In Putin’s worldview, Russia had been patient for a very long period. He ran out of patience momentarily in 2014, when Ukrainians deposed their pro-Russian president.
Russia retaliated by capturing Crimea and backed separatists who held large swathes in eastern Ukraine. In the conflict between the rebels and the Ukrainian military, more than 14,000 people have died.
MINSK DEAL
A deal called Minsk Agreement, named after Belarus’s capital, was signed in 2015 to end hostility and give autonomy in governance in areas controlled by Russia-backed separatists.
Russia has complained that the Minsk deal was never implemented and insists that it is the only way out of the Ukraine situation. China, too, has backed the Minsk deal as the way forward.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Feb 4, 2022 | AP
WHAT RUSSIA WANTS NATO RESISTS
Additionally, Russia wants a legally binding pledge from the West that Nato does not expand further in the region. Russia has said, “For us, it’s absolutely mandatory to ensure Ukraine never, ever becomes a member of Nato.”
Another sticking point is Russia’s demand that Nato restores pre-1997 military status in Europe. This would mean dismantling the military infrastructure that Nato has created in all these years.
Russia also demands that Nato must not deploy “strike weapons near Russia’s borders”. This would mean that Nato retreats militarily from Central Europe, East Europe and the Baltic region.
The West is not ready to order a Nato retreat and give Putin’s Russia a win that it failed to secure during the Cold War years.
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